IDEX Online Research: 2010 Was a Good Year for the U.S. Jewelry Industry
February 27, 11(IDEX Online) - There are several conclusions that we can draw from preliminary jewelry sales in 2010 in the American market, among them, that it was a record year and market share was gained.
Here are our conclusions from the U.S. government’s preliminary jewelry sales numbers for the full year and the 2010 holiday selling season:
· 2010 was a record year for jewelry sales in the U.S. market. Total jewelry sales were $63.4 billion (preliminary), well ahead of 2009’s $58.8 billion, and notably ahead of the prior record year’s sales of $62.0 billion in 2007. There is no doubt that 2010’s sales figures will be revised, but we don’t expect them to be revised so dramatically that sales would drop below $62.0, the prior record.
· The 2010 holiday sales period (November and December) was very strong. Overall jewelry sales were up over 8 percent; specialty jewelers’ sales lagged while jewelry sales at other retailers rose sharply. We expect these preliminary numbers to be revised, but they trend will remain: specialty jewelers under-performed other retailers who also sell jewelry.
· The jewelry segment gained market share in December, when compared to other retail segments. Both specialty jewelry chains as well as other merchants who sell jewelry confirmed this trend, when they released their monthly sales data.
· Unfortunately, there was one dark cloud in the sky during 2010: specialty jewelers lost significant market share last year. In 2009, their market share was 48.0 percent of total U.S. jewelry sales; it dropped to 46.9 percent in 2010, based on preliminary numbers. This is the continuation of a long-term trend: specialty jewelers seem to lose market share in a recession, and they never recover it in the post-recession period.
Disclaimer: These Are Government Numbers
For at least the second year in a row, we are perplexed by the government’s jewelry sales numbers for the year-end selling season. We think they need significant revision.
However, as we have said often, “The government numbers are what they are.” Our job is to analyze and interpret them. That’s particularly important in an industry that generates little research of its own and lacks transparency.
Fortunately, IDEX Online Research has the ability to gather data from a large group of independent specialty jewelers as well as some chain jewelers, both public and private. Our sample of independent specialty jewelers suggests that their sales were stronger than the government numbers indicate. (See sales tables in the summary article.)
Further, at least two industry publications also poll specialty jewelers regarding their sales, and they, too, have data that suggests that the government data needs revision.
We are aware of the government’s sampling scheme, and it is statistically sound. Thus, we’re not really sure why the data is sometimes off the mark, as it appears to be for December 2010.
Click here for more information on December 2010 jewelry retail sales.
Click here for more information on November-December 2010 holiday jewelry sales.
Click here for our “final” Holiday Sales Recap. This Recap has revised, new data. It was published by us in the past, but has been updated.
Click here for more information on jewelry sales for the full year of 2010.
Click here for our jewelry sales outlook and forecast for 2011 and beyond.