Beyond the Lab Grown Tipping Point

India now exports more carats of lab growns than it does natural diamonds - 18.84 million carats versus 16.00 million in the year to March 2026*.

It sounds like a big deal, but is it really anything more than the industry reaching an inevitable milestone?

The answer is no. Lab grown sales have been climbing and natural sales have been sliding for a good while now. So we were always going to reach this moment.

The answer is also yes. It's more than tipping point on a graph. It signals a structural reorientation of the global diamond industry.

Both are correct. It is both inevitable (as we've already explained) and significant.

Significant because it tells us the shift to lab growns is permanent and sustained, rather than temporary or short-lived (like in April 2025, when lab growns overtook natural for one month only, as importers stockpiled ahead of US tariffs)

It confirms what we already know, that lab growns are here to stay. But also that they're a distinct and different product.

It signals that India's diamond industry has institutionalized lab growns as its volume business, while natural diamonds represent value.

The same GJEPC report that tells us lab growns have overtaken natural exports also highlights the price chasm between the two. Natural diamonds are averaging $760 per carat, lab growns just $60.

So here's some interesting math. Today India's lab growns account for just over 50% of exports by volume (latest figures, for April, are 1.36 million carats to 1.34 million carats).

So what percentage of exports, by volume, do you think it would take for lab growns to overtake natural by value? The answer is 93% (calculation is below).

And that ain't ever going to happen. Even the most optimistic lab grown seller doesn't think so.

It's effectively unreachable under current market conditions. Demand for natural is moving toward larger, higher-value stones, while the lower end of the lab grown market is already saturated.

There's only so much room for growth in the mass market and the gap between it and the premium product - natural diamonds - is widening all the time.

It's about more than consumer choice, though. It's about who's actually making these stones (China claims it has a 63% share of global lab grown production, India is around 15%) and who's polishing them (India has a 90% near-monopoly compared to China's 5%).

And  that supply chain dynamic is likely to remain largely unchanged. China has the upper hand in the upstream. It has developed the capacity to produce huge volumes of small stones using HPHT and has a large and mature ecosystem.

India's lab grown producers favor CVD, which is better for larger stones but more expensive for small. It still imports seeds and machinery, although the government has pledged to make it more self-reliant.

But its established strength is polishing. India has the infrastructure, the experience, the finance and the cheap labor.

The lab grown tipping point is confirmation that the industry is now permanently bifurcated - lab-growns drive volume, naturals drive value. China grows, India polishes, and the world buys.

 *  Figures from India's GJEPC (Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council)

Value Tipping Point Calculation (April 2026)

Current April 2026 figures:

• Lab-grown: 1.36 million carats Ã- $60/carat = $81.6 million (7.4% of revenue)
• Natural: 1.34 million carats Ã- $760/carat = $1,018.4 million (92.6% of revenue)
• Volume: Lab-grown = 50.4% of total carats
• Price ratio: Natural sells for 12.67Ã- more per carat ($760 ÷ $60)

For equal revenue:

• Lab-grown needs 16.97 million carats (vs. current 1.36 million)
• Increase needed: +15.61 million carats (+1,148%)

Tipping point:

• Lab-grown = 92.7% of total carats (vs. current 50.4%)
• Gap: +42.3 percentage points