The IDEX Polished Diamond Price Index - September 2019
October 02, 19
(IDEX Online) - The IDEX Polished Diamond Price Index showed little movement in September, with prices declining only slightly during the month.
The Index began the month at 121.00 and ended it at 120.35.
Diamond Prices Show Downward Trend in 2019
Following declines in 2017, prices rose in 2018. Entering the fourth quarter of 2019, it is clear that prices are declining once again with September's prices floating just above 2017's average of 119.86. Heading into Q4, the Index stands at 120.71, as the graph below shows.
On a month-over-month basis, global polished diamond prices in September showed a decline of 0.7 percent from August.
On a year-over-year basis, the average price in September showed a more meaningful 3.7 decline. Prices have been declining since May with the losses gradually increasing. However, this year's losses have yet to hit the level of decline seen in 2016 and 2017 and come off a particularly strong 2018, as the graph below shows.
Diamond Prices By Size
On a month-over-month basis - September 2019 versus August 2019 - prices fell 0.7 percent. The 3- and 4-carat categories were hardest hit while other key sizes saw average losses.
On an annual basis, the story was very different with 0.5-carat stones nearing a 10-percent decline since September 2018 and 4 carat diamonds seeing a massive 31.4 percent drop in prices in just a year.
Over the longer term, 4 carat stones have been on a clear downward trajectory since 2015. Other sizes have had a much more stability, with prices rising and falling much more gently over the past few years.
Outlook
The important September edition of the Hong Kong Jewellery and Gem Fair saw weaker-than-usual turnout. Hardly surprising given the tension over the ongoing pro-democracy demonstrations. Subsequently, sales were lower than hoped for, which could have a knock-on effect as the industry gears up for the start of the holiday sales period.
The next edition of the Bharat Diamond Week will be held October 14-16, with organizers trying to drum up traffic by offering travel refunds for first-time visitors to the show. With the show falling just before the Diwali festival and shutdown, buyers should find competitive pricing from manufacturers who want to head into the festive season strongly.
Overall, October will be a clearer indication of where things are heading for this holiday period. Normally, prices firm up as the season gets closer. This year, we'll just have to wait and see if that happens.