Specialty Jewelers Rebound from Covid Disaster

Specialty jewelers' sales in the US have rebounded dramatically after the Covid-19 disaster of March, April and May, according to IDEX Research estimates.  The turn-around came in early summer as those retail merchants were able to re-open their stores.  Specialty jewelers' sales finally showed positive year-to-year comparisons in both August and September. Specialty jewelers — which generate about 42 percent of total fine jewelry and watch sales in the U.S. market — are those retail merchants with stores in which jewelry is the vast majority of merchandise sold.  

Because there has been no Commerce Department data related to specialty jewelers' sales since January due to the pandemic and store closures, IDEX Online is now using its own database to provide best-guess stats on the state of specialty jewelers' sales trends. 

IDEX Research data is shown on the graph below, along with an analysis of trends.  Finally, we've included information about how we derived our data.  

Sales Showed a Turnaround in Early Summer 

March, April, and early May were the toughest months for specialty jewelers due to government-mandated store closings.  Specialty jewelers were considered "non-essential" retailers.  As regulations began to relax in May, specialty jewelers began reopening their stores late that month.  Jewelry sales began to pick up in the early summer months, and have continued to show a solid recovery, as the graph below illustrates. 

The blue bars represent year-to-year sales comparisons by month for sales of jewelry and watches by all U.S. merchants, including multi-line retailers (Walmart, Costco, Macy's, etc) as well as specialty jewelers.  The orange bars represent IDEX estimates of year-to-year sales comparisons of sales by specialty jewelers. 

Here are a few trends:

Specialty jewelers' sales dipped far more than jewelry sales at multi-line retailers like Costco, Walmart, and others.  Multi-line retail merchants were deemed "essential" by the government, and their doors remained open throughout the year-to-date.  In contrast, most specialty jewelers' stores were totally closed, generating zero revenue. 

·     Online sales by large specialty jewelers showed solid gains, especially in the second quarter, but most small independent single-store jewelry merchants were not prepared to sell online.  

·     Jewelry store closings have accelerated since the beginning of the year.  Thus, some of those lost sales have shifted to multi-line merchants.   

       There have been interruptions to the global distribution system.  Diamond cutting centers in India are still not operating at capacity, and other worldwide suppliers of precious metals and semi-precious gemstones have been unable to maintain a steady, consistent supply of goods.  Less inventory on retail shelves means fewer choices for customers, reducing the likelihood that jewelers will have the goods to make a sale.

 Estimating Monthly Sales for U.S. Specialty Jewelers

Historically IDEX research has reported monthly estimates for jewelry sales in the U.S. market, based on U.S. Commerce Department data.  

Due to a diminished sample size related to Covid-19 and mandated store closures, the Commerce Department has temporarily ceased producing sales estimates for specialty jewelers, who represent about 42 percent of total jewelry and watch revenues. 

IDEX research has, for years, maintained its own jewelry sales database, aggregating data from its proprietary universe of retail jewelers, suppliers, and producers.  We use this as a cross-check for the government statistics.  The IDEX universe is probably a far less scientific sample than the government sample, but it has correlated (mostly) in the past with the government data. 

In an effort to continue bringing IDEX clients proprietary data, we have updated estimated monthly sales for specialty jewelers in the U.S. market during 2020.  We emphasize:  These are estimates that represent trends, and are less precise than the usual government data. 

One question we get regularly:  When will the government start producing data for specialty jewelers?  We don't have a precise answer.  However, there are a number of retail categories for which no data has been produced since January 2020.  So, as soon as things return to a "new normal", we'd expect to see data from the Commerce Department.   

IDEX Research will produce monthly jewelry sales estimates on a quarterly basis until the Commerce Department resumes its normal data publication schedule.