Retail Holiday Sales Projected to Grow 5.7%

(IDEX Online News) – Despite falling stock markets and worries about the financial future, the 2015 holiday season could well be a positive one for the US, according to eMarketer.

The digital marketing firm is projecting that US retail sales in November and December will increase 5.7 percent year-over-year to $885.7 billion. This is a 3.2-percent increase over the rate predicted earlier this year and the highest increase since 2011’s 6.3-percent rise.

According to eMarketer, the projected rise is due to a combination of factors including increases in real income from wages and further decreases in unemployment.

US retail ecommerce holiday season sales growth is expected to dip slightly this year to 13.9 percent compared to 14.4 percent in 2014. However, it will hit 9 percent of total retail sales this season, or $79.40 billion, up from an 8.3-percent share last year.

Mobile, on the other hand, will play a strong part in ecommerce growth this holiday season. eMarketer expects US retail mcommerce sales to rise 32.2 percent for the year as a whole, more than double the 14.2-percent increase forecast for retail ecommerce sales as a whole.

The biggest growth will come in smartphone retail mcommerce sales as consumers become more comfortable buying on their phones, which have larger screens than earlier phones.

eMarketer says that by the end of 2016, a quarter of all retail ecommerce sales in the US will take place via mobile devices.

“As US consumers become more comfortable with conducting a litany of activities with their smartphones, fewer people are putting down the phone to make a purchase using another device. Consumers are opting to complete their transaction with the same device they began the shopping journey with, and that is increasingly with a smartphone,” says eMarketer analyst Monica Peart.

The firm is also estimating that this holiday season will be the first real test of a new wave of social commerce. Over the past year, Facebook, Pinterest, Instagram, Twitter and YouTube have all introduced “buy” or “shop now” buttons that make the process of purchasing from these sites, especially on mobile devices, much easier.