"India's Diamond Revenue to Rebound in 2027"

(IDEX Online) - The cut in US tariffs on imports from India could push up revenue for the country's diamond polishers by 6% to 7% in FY 2027, according to Crisil, the Mumbai-based ratings agency.

But it is forecasting a contraction of 8% to 10% year-on-year for FY 2026, to $14bn to $14.8bn after three consecutive years of decline.

Crisil forecasts an increase in FY 2027 revenue to between $15.0bn and $15.5bn, based on feedback from 43 Indian diamantaires, accounting for almost a quarter of the industry's revenue.

But it cautions that the rebound could slow if the war in the Middle East drags on, causing further disruption to diamond shipments. India imports 70% of rough diamonds from UAE and Israel and exports 20% there.

Tariffs on India peaked at 50% in August of last year - half reciprocal, half punitive.

The Supreme Court ruled they were unlawful, but President Donald Trump responded by imposing temporary 10% tariffs under different legislation. India previously enjoyed a zero rate on diamond exports to the US.

"In FY27, polished diamond export volume is expected to rise 4-6 per cent, driven by the US tariff relief and multiple trade agreements," said Crisil Ratings senior director Rahul Guha in a report published on 13 March.

"Given that polishers import 70 per cent of roughs from the UAE and Israel and exports 20 per cent to them, the Middle East conflict may temporarily impact shipments. Other trading hubs may support shipments in case the conflict prolongs, like past tariff disruptions."