US Holiday Sales to Top $1 Trillion, but Jewelry Faces Spending Pressure

(IDEX Online) - US holiday retail sales are forecast to rise 4.2% year on year to $1.013 trillion in November and December, but consumer research points to pressure on jewelry spending.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) issued its forecast on October 15, predicting that holiday sales would exceed the $1 trillion mark for the first time. Sales rose 3.1% in 2025 to $972 billion.

The NRF forecast covers overall retail sales, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. It does not provide a separate projection for jewelry.

However, a McKinsey & Company consumer survey in September found that 43% of US consumers expected to spend less on jewelry over the following three months. The survey of 4,013 consumers was conducted in late July and early August.

A separate forecast published by Mastercard Economics Institute on September 23 projected US holiday retail sales growth of 5.5% between November 1 and December 24, excluding gasoline and automobiles.

Mastercard's analysis also examined jewelry spending during the 2025 holiday season. More than 35% of in-store spending across jewelry, handbags, department stores and cosmetics between November 22 and December 25 occurred in the final week before Christmas.

In its new forecast the NRF said consumers were entering the holiday season amid persistent inflation, higher gasoline prices, elevated interest rates and household debt. It forecast that retailers would hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, broadly in line with the previous year's estimated 356,000.

The forecasts point to continued growth in overall holiday spending, but do not establish that jewelry sales will rise at the same rate. McKinsey's findings suggest jewelry retailers may have to compete more aggressively for consumers' discretionary budgets.