(IDEX Online News) – Jewelry sales during November – the first month of the all-important 2012 holiday selling season – were up a strong 8.3 percent, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. Sales at specialty jewelers rose by 8.2 percent while sales at other multi-line merchants who sell jewelry were up by 8.4 percent.

 

The full analysis and statistics on jewelry industry inflation for November 2012 is available to IDEX Online Research subscribers and IDEX Online members here.

 

However, it is important to note that the government’s sales figures are preliminary, and, unfortunately, they are inconsistent with sales reported by individual jewelers in the IDEX Online Research sample of retailers. Thus, we expect November’s preliminary sales numbers to be revised downward.

 

Based on sales reports from specialty jewelers, we believe that 2012 holiday sales will rise by a more modest low-to-mid single digit range.

 

The graph below summarizes total jewelry sales trends by month in the U.S. market. These results represent sales by all merchants – specialty jewelers and multi-line retailers – who sell jewelry.

 

 

Preliminary Sales Data Encouraging for November

Here is what the data for November 2012 showed:

 

 

WHAT Sold In November: Watches Outpaced Jewelry

Demand for fine watches was modestly stronger than demand for fine jewelry in November.

 

WHO Sold Jewelry in November: Multi-Line Merchants Took Slight Share

For most of 2012, the battle for market share has been bouncing back and forth between specialty jewelers and other merchants – mostly multi-line discounters – who sell jewelry. In November, multi-line merchants took share “by a nose” from specialty jewelers.

 

RETAIL Market Share: Jewelry Sales Gains Outpaced Total Retail Demand

During 2011, jewelry sales gains were much stronger than total retail sales gains (all categories of merchandise), indicating that jewelry captured significantly greater share of wallet during the year.

 

Outlook: Moderate Gains Expected

While November’s jewelry sales trends are encouraging, uncertain American consumers have continued to keep a relatively tight rein on their overall spending. Preliminary holiday sales reports suggest softness in consumer demand.

 

Worse, January 2013 jewelry demand appears to be off significantly. As one jeweler told us, “shoppers turned off their spending spigot on January 1.”

 

We continue to forecast that sales of fine jewelry and watches will rise by about 4 percent in 2012, when compared to 2011. While the percentage gain is modest, 2012 will be a record sales year for the American jewelry industry.

 

Our preliminary sales forecast for the U.S. jewelry industry in 2013 is a gain between 3 and 4 percent.

 

The full analysis and statistics on jewelry industry inflation for November 2012 is available to IDEX Online Research subscribers and IDEX Online members here. Click here for more information on how to subscribe or become a member.